22, May #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: RSF defections…

RSF defections: a turning point in Sudan's war? This asks the good question, what if Hemedti were to defect? Would he face the same lack of accountability? Recent defections, and their poor public response, demands SAF find an answer before peace talks.

Cameron Hudson: RSF defections…

https://x.com/_hudsonc/status/2057787207037993222?s=20

#WarSpillover

28, May #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: More overwhelming accounts of UAE...

More overwhelming accounts of UAE role in 🇸🇩."Many governments contributed to Sudan’s catastrophe. But the UAE went above and beyond to run a covert airbridge to the RSF, airlifting wounded RSF fighters to Emirati hospitals, and facilitating RSF smuggling."

#WarSpillover

27, May #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: Death, distrust, and desperation…

Death, distrust, and desperation: The unending saga of Sudanese refugees trapped in northern Niger. Another heartbreaking after-effect of the war in Sudan.

#WarSpillover

22, May #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: RSF 'to cut flow of oil unless Sudan army drone strikes cease.'…

RSF 'to cut flow of oil unless Sudan army drone strikes cease.' That is a considerable threat, but couldn't just the SAF threaten to blow up RSF diamond mines? There is a certain degree of mutually assured destruction, no?

#WarSpillover

21, May #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: The SAF and its intelligence services...

"The SAF and its intelligence services identify RSF commanders whose tribal loyalties are fraying, offer guarantees and then publicize the defection for maximum psychological effect." An excellent look at what recent RSF defections mean for the war.

#WarSpillover

05, May #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: The war with Iran cannot erase…

"The war with Iran cannot erase fundamental tensions between the two powers. The strained relationship between the Gulf powerhouses is likely to influence the region’s trajectory for years to come."

#WarSpillover

02, May #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: Israel and the UAE find common…

Israel and the UAE find common cause as the Iran war cracks old Middle East alliances. The implications for African states of this alliance is already being felt by frontline African states, particularly in the Horn. Those states need to wake up to this.

#WarSpillover

02, May #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: RSF drones strike southern Khartoum…

RSF drones strike southern Khartoum and North Kordofan. I was in Jebel Aulia last month and everyone I spoke to felt confident that the war would not return to their city. These threats make any return to normalcy for average people impossible.

#WarSpillover

29, April #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: The Horn region is no longer…

"The Horn region is no longer dealing with isolated crises but rather a systemic pattern of conflict shaped by both internal tensions and external pressures." Diagnosing the problem has never been the problem. Its the response that falls apart.

#WarSpillover

24, April #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: To clarify my commentary…

To clarify my commentary, my opposition is not to lifting sanctions on Eritrea, per se. There is a logic to it. Isaias is an important and powerful actor in a region of growing strategic importance. My issue is the manner in which such decisions get made. Yes there are upsides But there are also many potential downsides. A decision to lift sanctions cannot be considered in a vacuum as they might have been a few years ago. This is not simply a bilateral matter any more. Beyond that, I question the Administration’s own logic. Engagement without a strategy can be self-defeating. And I don’t believe we have a well articulated Horn or Red Sea strategy. And also, if Trump’s diplomacy is transactional then what do we get for lifting these sanctions? I understand what Isaias and Sisi get, but it’s not clear what the US gets. Isaias is not going to reform internally, he isn’t going to give the US a base. And even if he promised those things, why on earth would we trust him? He has survived through alliance building and then abandonment. Why would now be any different? My commentary was intended to create public debate around all these questions because discussions make for better policies and better outcomes for everyone. Secret talks suggest the US and Boulos are not interested in public debates. We can do better. ✌️

#WarSpillover

23, April #MigrantCrisis

Cameron Hudson: My god. The humanitarian situation...

My god. The humanitarian situation for Sudanese keeps getting worse, including in refugee camps outside the country. A true demonstration of the failed humanitarian response having nothing to do with humanitarian corridors or truces which obfuscate for a lack of overall aid.

#MigrantCrisis

22, April

Cameron Hudson: As I have been predicting for weeks…

As I have been predicting for weeks, Washington has jumped into the hornets nest of Red Sea politics, holding secret meetings with Isaias in Cairo in a bid to increase its influence in the region by lifting sanctions on Eritrea. What will Eritrea do in return? How will Addis react? What does this mean for Trump's promise to restart GERD talks? How will this a US-Eritrea rapprochement affect the SAF and Sudan's war? And what will UAE and Saudi make of the US effort to enter Red Sea political debates, seemingly aligning itself against Ethiopia? Too many questions to answer. But what I can say is that the US is doing it all without a strategy with a used truck salesman at the helm. What could possibly go wrong??

17, April

Cameron Hudson: I remember when the US would have led…

I remember when the US would have led the world in imposing UN sanctions on these kinds of forces. Now it acts unilaterally, abandoning the multilateral system it helped to build, and wonders why its actions don't have their desired effect. 🇺🇸alone.

16, April

Cameron Hudson: The American government does not want…

“The American government does not want to come [to Sudan], and they are making all these allegations about Sudan without coming to see.” I have to agree with @Amgad_Fareid . The one common thread over 30 year of US diplomacy in Sudan is constant visits. I dont understand how we can claim to understand anything about this country without going there..frequently.

15, April

Cameron Hudson: With no clear vision for Sudan's future…

"With no clear vision for Sudan's future, undergirded by a set of morally questionable and short-term motivations, Trump is continuing to push a peace proposal which even its authors (Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt) now appear only vaguely in support of."