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Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham’s cabinet is more vulnerable...
Alex Wickham
26, July #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham’s cabinet is more vulnerable...

Andy Burnham’s cabinet is more vulnerable to Reform than Keir Starmer’s. Only six cab mins would keep their seats if election was tomorrow, compared to 10 of Starmer’s. Could imply policies will focus primarily on Reform. By @SelinaYuerChen @JacobReid02 https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-26/burnham-s-cabinet-is-more-vulnerable-to-reform-than-starmer-s
Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham’s cabinet is more vulnerable...
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2081272543722291276
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Alex Wickham: Exclusive...
Alex Wickham
11, September #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: Exclusive...

Exclusive: Andy Burnham’s economic guru Jim O’Neill says the government should not raise any taxes at the budget “I do not think any further increases in taxes are going to be doing anything to sustain the growth of the economy,” O’Neill tells @BloombergUK after the UK economy beat expectations in July He says in particular the UK should not raise taxes on banks, businesses or oil and gas companies, and that the govt should not try to equalise capital gains tax and income tax “The last thing that should be going on is more taxes on business” On CGT, he says: “It’s not entirely clear it would even raise any money. It’s very misunderstood and the last thing we should be trying to do is deterring genuine risk-taking investment.” And he calls on Burnham to scrap the pensions triple lock: “The triple lock is right at the top of things that are just simply not affordable” Story by @Joe_Mayes :
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Alex Wickham: Breaking: Labour have formally...
Alex Wickham
04, September #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: Breaking: Labour have formally...

Breaking: Labour have formally reported Nigel Farage and two senior Reform UK aides to the police accusing them of possible criminal offences following the undercover sting In a letter to Metropolitan Police chief Mark Rowley, Labour chair Bridget Phillipson writes: “The allegations are unusually serious because they do not concern an apparent administrative error or uncertainty over the permissibility of a donor. The published material describes arrangements which appear to have been designed to conceal the source of political funding and, in the case of the polling payments, evidence which suggests awareness that the payments constituted donations and a deliberate decision not to disclose them. We therefore believe there is a proper basis for a police investigation into whether offences under PPERA have been committed”
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Alex Wickham: Exclusive: UK-specific investor concerns...
Alex Wickham
03, September #CostOfLiving

Alex Wickham: Exclusive: UK-specific investor concerns...

Exclusive: UK-specific investor concerns about Andy Burnham and John Healey’s fiscal plans are amplifying the impact of the global bond selloff on gilts, according to analysis by Bloomberg @economics Our economists say that while some of the recent hit to gilts is attributable to global moves likely due to expectations of Fed tightening, and much is due to the impacts of the Iran war on inflation, the UK situation is being made worse by rising risk perception likely due to anxiety over the coming budget It means UK borrowing costs are rising relative to peers because investors remain unconvinced by Burnham and Healey’s plans, according to their analysis In other words, rising UK borrowing costs can’t just be blamed on the global selloff
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Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham and John Healey...
Alex Wickham
12, August #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham and John Healey...

EXCLUSIVE: Andy Burnham and John Healey have been told by the Treasury that the UK economy will barely grow next year if the Strait of Hormuz remains badly disrupted until the end of 2026 The PM and chancellor have been presented with Treasury modelling that sees UK GDP growth at just 0.3% in 2027 if the strait remains blocked this year. The warning complicates the first 18 months of Burnham’s premiership and Healey’s preparations for the budget In a reasonable worst-case scenario modelled by the Treasury, the strait is seen remaining effectively closed for five more months, with no permanent peace deal between the US and Iran until the new year In that scenario, GDP growth for 2026 is seen at 0.9%, below the 1.1% forecast by the OBR in March. But with the impacts taking time to fully filter through, GDP growth for 2027 is then seen at just 0.3%, a sharp downgrade on the 1.6% forecast by the OBR CPI inflation is seen peaking at 4.3% in the first quarter of 2027 in this scenario. It would have fallen to the 2% target if the war hadn’t happened. A further spike in the oil price could raise concerns about financial stability in a worst-case outcome, the Treasury assessments warned They have been shared with Burnham and Healey ahead of the budget on Oct. 28, setting out the economic headwinds that will determine this government’s fortunes If the economy effectively flatlines next year, it would leave Burnham with a battle to show Britons he has materially improved their lives in his first 18 months in power. The warnings also further complicate what is already a challenging budget for Healey. Not only must he find money to fulfil Burnham’s ambitions for more spending, he now also has to factor in a potential growth downgrade and higher inflation While Treasury officials do not necessarily expect the worst-case scenario to happen, they see it as a reasonably likely outcome. Officials calculate that while the future of the conflict is highly uncertain, it is likely that it continues to flare-up in the months ahead, severely disrupting commercial traffic through the strait
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Alex Wickham: Exclusive by @LucyGJWhite...
Alex Wickham
01, August #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: Exclusive by @LucyGJWhite...

Exclusive by @LucyGJWhite Reform makes plans for early election A person close to Reform says the party has become increasingly concerned Andy Burnham might call an election to take advantage of the recent decline in Nigel Farage’s fortunes triggered by revelations about the party’s finances They express concerns that Reform won’t be ready and has yet to create policy in key areas like foreign affairs, defence and education, and that it’s missing spokespeople on important beats As a result Reform is rapidly drawing up a skeleton manifesto and speeding up candidate selection, running assessment centres over the summer, they say Reform will also try to regain some impetus from Burnham by launching an attack on small-boat crossings next week A Reform official confirms the party is speeding up candidate selection and that work is ongoing to produce a manifesto, but insists they’re optimistic about their chances should Burnham call an early election
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Alex Wickham: BP’s decision to sell its North Sea...
Alex Wickham
31, July #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: BP’s decision to sell its North Sea...

NEW by @Joe_Mayes @MitchellFerman @EllenAMilligan BP’s decision to sell its North Sea business leaves a pivotal decision for Andy Burnham and marks a critical moment for Britain’s dwindling oil and gas industry North Sea producers have criticised Tory and Labour governments since the 2022 windfall tax, arguing investing there is no longer competitive Trump wants Burnham to change tack and the new PM let the president believe he would in their first call But the reality is it’s politically contentious with environmentalists and Labour MPs opposing new drilling. That’s now been made even harder by the wildfires in Europe Despite his rhetoric it appears Burnham is in reality just looking at doing what Keir Starmer likely would have done eventually, ie tie-backs, Jackdaw and Rosebank, rather than any major change in policy That risks upsetting both sides: Trump, trade unions and the oil and gas industry for whom it might not be enough, and the green-minded side who don’t want any more drilling BP’s move “should be a defining moment for the new prime minister,” says Russell Borthwick, chief executive of Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce. “This decision is another stark reminder that confidence in the UK continental shelf has been badly shaken after years of policy uncertainty, punitive taxation and mixed messages about the future of the industry.”
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Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham says he told...
Alex Wickham
30, July #WarSpillover

Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham says he told...

NEW: Andy Burnham says he told Donald Trump the UK cannot “ignore” the oil in the North Sea when “people are struggling,” and that he’ll take a “pragmatic approach” as PM That appears to confirm Burnham is looking at more drilling in the North Sea, as Trump said last night (and as Bloomberg reported a couple of weeks back) “I indicated in the phone call that we had a week last Monday that I would take a pragmatic approach when it comes to the North Sea, and that is my intention as we go forward from here,” Burnham says “There is a resource there. When people are struggling, we can’t ignore that. Hence, me indicating that to the president”
#WarSpillover
Alex Wickham: Essential @PhilAldrick analysis...
Alex Wickham
30, July #WarSpillover

Alex Wickham: Essential @PhilAldrick analysis...

Essential @PhilAldrick analysis The Bank of England and by extension Andy Burnham have a Trump problem as the Iran war blocks interest rate cuts It means homeowners have to live with higher interest costs and jobs will be lost, bad news for the “cost of living government”. Read between the lines and the BoE’s message today is that it’s all Trump’s fault Should the war persist “it’s likely that we will have to tighten policy to counter inflationary pressures in the UK economy,” Andrew Bailey said today Without the war we’d have had one or two more rate cuts already, @KallumPickering reckons. Domestically things are better than expected but Brits aren’t feeling it thanks to Iran Bailey indicated the bank doesn’t want to raise rates but will if it has to. The market sees at least one hike this year. It all comes down to Trump
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Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham’s social care speech signals...
Alex Wickham
29, July #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham’s social care speech signals...

Andy Burnham’s social care speech signals that a major new policy will come in autumn 2027 at the earliest, indicating tax rises will likely be needed to pay for it He says Louise Casey will expedite her review so it’s completed a year from now. The review will consider how to pay for a new social care policy. Casey is launching a national conversation about it From the fiscal perspective this suggests no new policy until at least autumn 2027 and therefore that Burnham and John Healey will not need to find new money for it at this year’s budget Asked about tax rises, he says he thinks it’s possible to do “much more” within existing budgets but that “difficult decisions” will be required. That suggests he accepts tax rises are likely needed to pay for the policy. He recommits to Labour’s manifesto pledges There were no real details today about what sorts of options Burnham and Casey are looking at, but a cast iron commitment to fix social care He says “it is a major dereliction of public duty” that successive governments have not fixed social care, calling it “shameful.” Says “social care in England is as unfair as American healthcare” He says people may be feeling deja vu, criticising 22 social care reviews in the last three decades, but vows “this time we are going to do it” Burnham says he’ll look at how to improve working standards for care workers, and hold talks with other parties to try to build a consensus (although the Tories and Reform say they won’t support new tax rises)
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Alex Wickham: Exclusive by @ChaplainChloe...
Alex Wickham
28, July #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: Exclusive by @ChaplainChloe...

Exclusive by @ChaplainChloe Labour MPs warn Andy Burnham he’ll lose their support if he makes “punitive” welfare cuts. It’s the first warning to the new PM from the party’s left After Burnham’s comments about cutting the welfare bill on Monday, one MP says he has to be careful not to repeat Keir Starmer’s mistake of focusing on savings rather than fairness. Without proper engagement with MPs he risks having cuts blocked by the party, they say Another Labour MP, Kim Johnson, says she’s concerned the appointment of John Healey as chancellor “signals a return to a ‘warfare, not welfare’ approach” “If the new leadership believes it can revive the failed politics of welfare cuts instead of asking the wealthiest to pay their fair share, it will be repeating not only Keir Starmer’s mistakes but fourteen years of Tory austerity,” Johnson said. “If the first instinct of a new leadership is to target disabled people and low-income families rather than challenge the wealth and inequality at the top of society, then nothing has been learned” John McDonnell says welfare reform “must be based upon a strategy of providing positive support to people rather than punitive sanction”
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Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham says he’ll make it harder...
Alex Wickham
27, July #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham says he’ll make it harder...

NEW: Andy Burnham says he’ll make it harder to claim benefits, vowing to “get really serious” about cutting the welfare bill and setting up a clash with Labour MPs “It's about changing the nature of the support and making some of the support conditional upon people taking opportunities that are presented in front of them,” he tells @BBCLauraK “Let me just say something more though about what you're driving at, which is the welfare bill. I think we've got to get really serious as a country at getting the welfare bill down” There are no details yet on how he intends to do it but it will be a major challenge Keir Starmer’s efforts to reduce the welfare bill by just £5 billion sparked a huge rebellion from Labour MPs - organised by Burnham supporters including Louise Haigh - from which he never recovered
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Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham declines twice...
Alex Wickham
26, July #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham declines twice...

NEW: Andy Burnham declines twice to say he can trust Donald Trump Asked by @BBCLauraK he says only that he’s had one “warm” phone call with him. Asked a second time he says “it’s a changing world” It’s the first evidence of how Burnham will handle the US relationship. The diplomatic answer Keir Starmer used to give was that he did trust Trump Burnham also declines to commit to spending 3% of GDP on defence despite John Healey saying failing to do so leaves the country unsafe. That position surely cannot hold if Healey is to remain in post He says there won’t be an “early” election but doesn’t rule out calling one before 2029
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Alex Wickham: Keir Starmer’s allies accuse Andy Burnham...
Alex Wickham
21, July #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: Keir Starmer’s allies accuse Andy Burnham...

EXCLUSIVE: Keir Starmer’s allies accuse Andy Burnham of appointing a divisive cabinet designed to reward those who brought him down. One says it immediately breaks Burnham’s pledge to be inclusive and run a broad church. Another says it’s dangerously hubristic and creates enemies who will come back to haunt him. A third says there is no policy justification for the top appointments. Burnham’s allies insist the cabinet represents all factions and regions. But in a striking response some of Starmer’s allies are saying men have got the top jobs and that it cements a north-south divide. While some see John Healey as a safer pick as chancellor than a left-winger, a Starmer ally says he’s been misunderstood and he’s actually the fiscally loosest possible choice because he wants a massive increase in defence spending. There is a lot of negative briefing about Wes Streeting, an arch anti-Starmer plotter, over his lack of defence experience. Former soldier Dan Jarvis losing his job is particularly upsetting people. Ed Miliband, another key plotter, as foreign secretary is causing a big reaction. Some are confused because he faces a very difficult task winning round the Trump administration that openly dislikes him. And it’s angering those who were appalled by his infamous decision to block action against Assad. There are also early signs of discontent on the left over Shabana Mahmood’s reappointment as home secretary. Lots of Burnham supporters on the left abstained on the immigration bill last week assuming she would be moved. They will want her to water down her more hardline immigration policies. Some on the left are also disappointed Miliband wasn’t made chancellor, saying Healey will want to focus spending on defence and is hardly a transformational pick otherwise.
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Alex Wickham: Bloomberg Saturday read with the great...
Alex Wickham
18, July #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: Bloomberg Saturday read with the great...

NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read with the great @ChaplainChloe — Andy Burnham wanted to take over on a wave of hope, good vibes and a promise to end the culture of infighting that sank Keir Starmer. Extraordinarily, that optimism is fading before he’s even taken office. — Even some Burnham supporters are already concerned his transition into No10 has been dominated by indecision, a policy vacuum and a power grab by his inner circle. At the centre of it is the remarkable falling out with Ed Miliband and a growing rebellion on the Labour soft-left, the faction that fought to get him the job in the first place. — Labour MPs and aides have a sense of foreboding that, far from representing a break from Starmer, Burnham is already succumbing to the same problems. Labour is united on the need for him to succeed but there’s mounting anxiety, one says. Another warns some of his earliest supporters are already starting to lose faith in the project. — Burnham tried to get ahead of the doubts yesterday, vowing to end the “insidious” culture of briefings, disunity and “point-scoring.” He insisted he had a plan. That followed his email to the PLP where he promised to be an inclusive team player. — But even people who support Burnham say it rings hollow and raises red flags. Several protest how his inner circle are conducting themselves. They say his close advisers have cut broader allies out of conversations about his plans. There are complaints about a top-down, ultra-centralised and opaque operation with an iron grip on power, blocking perceived rivals from jobs, the opposite of the inclusive approach he publicly espouses. — Labour officials say Burnham has already amassed a dangerously long list of internal enemies. The roll call of people with axes to grind may soon include Keir Starmer and his loyalists, Miliband, Rachel Reeves, Angela Rayner, who is outside of Burnham’s circle, as well as Wes Streeting and Yvette Cooper if they aren’t given top jobs. That is big and broad range of powerful opponents to have before you’ve even entered No10. — One aide says it was unnecessary to have put so many noses out of joint and that the disquiet is becoming unsustainable. Several warn Burnham risks losing the support of key figures in the party and inviting a leadership challenge before the next election, an extraordinary prospect given Labour was elected on a promise to end the Tory chaos. — The indecision and lack of transparency on appointments has caused nothing short of a meltdown among his allies who expect to get jobs. The fallout with Miliband is infuriating the Labour left who already feel badly let down. Another warns if this is how he treats the person who helped him become PM, it doesn’t bode well for the rest of the party. — Others say Burnham has made a bad error in appointing men to most of the senior roles in his No10 operation. There is disbelief he has reappointed nearly all of Starmer’s senior male aides and none of the senior women, despite his campaign pledging to end what they called a “boys’ club” in No10. — Shabana Mahmood as chancellor risks upsetting all sides, one source says. Many on the left consider her a right-winger due to her immigration stance, but moderates say in fact she holds left-wing economic views that will take the country in the wrong direction. — A Labour source says that when the history of Burnham’s transition into power is written, the question will be: “Were they left with too little time to think about all of this, or too much?"
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Alex Wickham: EXCLUSIVE with @ChaplainChloe...
Alex Wickham
15, July #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: EXCLUSIVE with @ChaplainChloe...

EXCLUSIVE with @ChaplainChloe Andy Burnham’s team has descended into infighting over whether he should appoint Ed Miliband as chancellor, just days before he takes office. The row poses a major early challenge for his premiership before it’s even begun. Many Burnham supporters wanted and expected Miliband to get the job but others in his team have been strongly arguing against it. As @Steven_Swinford reports that second faction believes it’s won. The conversations were still taking place as late as yesterday, sources say, suggesting Burnham has been unable to make this fundamental decision about the direction of his government. He becomes PM in five days and no one knows who his chancellor will be including apparently him. It will fuel criticisms he has no plan. Burnham’s approach of holding off from making appointments until this late stage has stoked uncertainty and infighting among his allies already, several of them told Bloomberg. Many long-standing allies who helped his rise to power have yet to be told whether they’ll be given jobs in the cabinet or No10, they said. A Miliband supporter warns Burnham will face outcry from the Labour left and soft-left if he bottles the appointment, expressing disappointment he hasn’t already been confirmed. Another points out it was Miliband who led the charge against Starmer on Burnham’s behalf for the last year, and Miliband who advised Burnham to commit to the existing fiscal rules. Miliband’s allies have been pitching him as chancellor as recently as the last few days, suggesting he has had no assurances from Burnham. They say he is the candidate with the most experience and support in the party. But others are warning he would be a soft target and lose popularity. A Bloomberg survey of market participants finds Miliband would be their least favoured pick as chancellor. Just 5% backed him.
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Alex Wickham: NEW: How would Andy Burnham...
Alex Wickham
17, June #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: NEW: How would Andy Burnham...

NEW: How would Andy Burnham govern? Labour’s big fear is he can’t live up to his promise of change and he ends up not much different to Keir Starmer. The levers available to him to go big on policy are limited. Binding himself to the manifesto and fiscal rules means he cannot significantly raise taxes, borrow or spend more. Only more incremental fiscal options are possible unless he changes his mind. He will pursue soft-left social justice policies: social care, a long-term investment plan, more public ‘control’ of industry, council houses, bus fares, some small tax rises on the wealthy. All good stuff for a Labour PM, but so far there’s not really a big idea there that can turn around Labour’s fortunes in three years. And there’s no detail yet. Like Starmer, Burnham has judged he needs to be tough on immigration to stop Labour’s traditional working class vote going to Reform. He wants more detention of asylum seekers, backs Shabana Mahmood’s policies and wants to try welfare cuts again. His language around the Henry Nowak case was fascinating: suggesting banning the kirpan and that Britain does have two-tier policing except in Manchester under its ‘no nonsense’ police chief. Soft-left social justice + tough on immigration… trying to appeal to both right and left to prevent votes bleeding both ways… within the confines of the fiscal rules and manifesto… sounds quite a lot like Starmer. There have been some red flags during his campaign. A lot of Starmer-esque u-turns. The Waspi gaffe. And loose talk, saying repeatedly he’ll “look at” various policies that would cost billions, like a pensioner tax cut, with no plan to pay for them. There are signs of tension among his supporters already. Some backers suggest his team has struggled to agree either on a policy platform or a political strategy for how they should approach the days after Makerfield. We have no idea who his chancellor will be. Or his No10 team. Or his top cabinet posts. His political operation is very limited: Louise Haigh, Ed Miliband, Miatta Fahnbulleh, Josh Simons. That’s a huge amount of uncertainty over someone who wants a coronation within weeks. Burnham will want to focus on domestic policy and not as much on foreign policy as Starmer. But that’s easier said than done. He’d be PM in Trump’s world and the Ukraine war endgame would happen on his watch. Foreign policy may well define a Burnham premiership whether he likes it or not - just like Starmer. No doubt Burnham is a better communicator. He seems at ease with working class voters and says all the right things. Maybe that’s enough reason to change. But with the constraints he faces, can he deliver the radical change he’s promising, or is he setting himself up to let voters down like so many PMs before him?
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Alex Wickham: NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read…
Alex Wickham
13, June #BrokenSystem

Alex Wickham: NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read…

NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read — Andy Burnham is planning to move quickly after Makerfield to secure a coronation. His supporters think John Healey’s resignation kills off Keir Starmer’s chances of survival. They think Wes Streeting and Al Carns don’t have the numbers, and that Burnham can quickly get 250+ Labour MPs and most of the cabinet to back him. — Starmer insists he’ll fight, but the question is what the cabinet does. Burnham’s supporters want them to tell the PM to agree a handover. Before Healey resigned, Starmer’s allies hoped he could battle on because most of the cabinet would back him to stay. Aides suggest the calculus is changing and Healey’s brutal exit makes it more likely they tell Starmer it’s over. — Even Starmer loyalists are very critical of the PM. They wish he’d been bolder, found the defence money from welfare, net zero or elsewhere, and sacked Ed Miliband. Several allies say they can’t believe Miliband and Shabana Mahmood (who they say privately plotted with Burnham and Miliband to oust Starmer) are still in the cabinet, but Healey isn’t. One says that’s the final evidence of his lack of authority, political judgment and decision-making ability. — Starmer’s relationship with Rachel Reeves has been tested to the limit. Her resistance led Starmer to renege on his Munich speech and overrule Healey and Jonathan Powell. She effectively buried his survival strategy of focusing on security. Reeves allies argue it’s her job to make the numbers add up and if Starmer wanted more money for defence he could have imposed more departmental cuts but was unwilling. — Burnham will not keep Reeves on as his chancellor, despite her allies pitching her to stay. Reappointing her would not be the change he’s promising, one Burnham supporter says. They say they spoke to Reeves around the locals and came away believing she would help them persuade Starmer to go, but she didn’t follow through. — The turmoil is rattling UK allies. European diplomats contacted British counterparts in recent days complaining about the uncertainty over the UK’s defence spending plans, the slow pace of the uplift and Healey’s departure. They’ve also asked for information about Burnham’s plans for foreign policy and defence but got no answer. — If Burnham does become PM he’ll face the same problems. His critics say he’s never uttered a word of substance on defence or foreign policy, shows no interest in it and has no plan. It is not impossible that in the next few months the British PM has to join negotiations with Putin over Ukraine. “Can you imagine Burnham doing that?” asks one official, especially with Powell likely to leave with Starmer. — Starmer’s chaos also distracted from what might otherwise have been a bad week for Burnham. He got away with his WASPI gaffe thanks to Healey. Labour MPs are also critical of his plans on immigration. One aide said his proposal to end asylum hotel contracts and move responsibility for housing migrants to local authorities is amateurish and toxic. — It all leaves Labour MPs in a state of total despair. Starmer looks finished but Burnham has no obvious plan and keeps making basic mistakes that foreshadow another troubled premiership, one said. If Burnham loses Makerfield, Labour appears to have no other options.
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Alex Wickham: The thing that is so bewildering…
Alex Wickham
11, June #StarmerCrisis

Alex Wickham: The thing that is so bewildering…

The thing that is so bewildering is that in Munich in February Keir Starmer gave one of his best speech as PM where he appeared to define his premiership on rebuilding UK defence credibility and taking a leadership role in Europe. Time and time again Starmer has said security is the point of his premiership. Insecurity is his main argument against changing leader. Rather than find a few extra billion to meet that rhetoric he has taken a political decision not to, siding not only with the Treasury but also inexplicably with the Labour welfare rebels who sunk his premiership. It means he is left with Ed Miliband in his cabinet, who has agitated for his downfall, and no John Healey. How has he managed that?
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