Timothy Ash

14, September #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Despite warnings from Bessent...

Despite warnings from Bessent, I don’t think a major Turkish institution is at risk of U.S. sanctions. Not after all the efforts to clear up the Halkbank case & as U.S. - Turkiye relations are improving fast, & Trump needs Erdogan on Iran, Syria, Gaza et al.

https://x.com/tashecon/status/2099401733617184899

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

05, September #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Trump going full unorthodox...

Trump going full unorthodox - that ended disastrously in Turkiye with devaluation and high inflation resulting eventually in much higher policy rates.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

24, August #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Guess the markets waking up...

Guess the markets waking up to concern over US - Canada trade war & a US - China trade war over Iran, and China is the biggest economic facilitator of Iran. How is Bessent going to address that?

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

23, August #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Another incoherent effort...

Another incoherent effort by the Trump administration. Poorly thought out, no strategic planning or vision, and poorly executed by people out of their depth.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

22, August #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Thing is Netanyahu seems to want...

Thing is Netanyahu seems to want escalation with Turkiye to divert attention from Iran war failures and save his political fortunes with elections looming.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

18, August #TrendShock

Timothy Ash: Ridiculous. He needs...

Ridiculous. He needs to focus on his own elections, rather than stirring up Islamophobia in the U.K., and promoting far right extremism in the U.K.

#TrendShock

Timothy Ash

17, August #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Trump is desperate for a distraction...

Trump is desperate for a distraction - Iran policy is failing, Ukraine policy is failing, he is looking for an easy win, and selling South Korea down the river is that.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

15, August #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Trump’s Iran policy has been...

Trump’s Iran policy has been a catastrophic failure. As has been his Ukraine policy.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

14, August #BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash: Seems a fair assessment...

Seems a fair assessment. Briefed Trump that going to war with Iran would take the Islamic Republic over the edge. The U.S. and Israel lost that war and the Islamic Republic has been rejuvenated and is going to be getting .$$ to toll the Straits.

#BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash

11, August #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Someone just said Iran...

Someone just said Iran now has all the cards over Trump. It’s like UNO and Iran has a pack of “Miss a turn”, “+4”, “change direction” cards over Trump.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

08, August #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Vacuum and incoherence from Trump...

Vacuum and incoherence from Trump on Iran and Russia-Ukraine. No strategy just massaging the ego of a sociopath.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

07, August #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Donald Trump has been the key driver...

Donald Trump has been the key driver for this move: the incompetence, incoherence and unpredictability of policy under Trump. It’s not only that the U.S. is an unreliable partner but it is now the greatest source of global geopolitical stress/uncertainty.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

03, August #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Maybe there just is no Trump...

Maybe there just is no Trump strategy or master plan. It’s just a policy of incoherence as for a sociopath all that matters is the self, and what makes him feel good on any day.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

03, August #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Trump’s Iran policy is now...

Trump’s Iran policy is now just incoherent. Like his Ukraine policy, and pretty much most foreign policy these days. Spaghetti against the wall stuff.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

27, July #BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash: U.K. MOD simply not fit for purpose...

U.K. MOD simply not fit for purpose - disastrous track record in defence procurement. 101 errors like this one on drones. What’s the point increasing defence spending when basic defence procurement is so screwed up. https://timothyash.substack.com/p/britain-rues-the-waves

#BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash

22, July #BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash: U.K. defence spending is incredibly inefficient...

U.K. defence spending is incredibly inefficient - dreadful and wasteful procurement thru primes. More of the same is not a way forward. Radical change is needed.

#BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash

20, July #TrendShock

Timothy Ash: If Argentina win this World Cup...

If Argentina win this World Cup it will be an absolute travesty - but a final indictment of the corruption of FIFA.

#TrendShock

Timothy Ash

15, July #TrendShock

Timothy Ash: London full of ENG shirts tonight...

London full of ENG shirts tonight, not many ARG. ENG always lose against ARG so likely plenty of disappointment in U.K. tonight. That said Spain will beat all comers & am looking forward to seeing Trump eat his words & hand the Trophy to an incredible Spain.

#TrendShock

Timothy Ash

14, July #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: The remarkable resilience...

The remarkable resilience of the global economy and energy markets in particular during the second Iran war has created false confidence by Trump and hence a willingness to go to war with Iran for a third time. That global resilience looks to be tested again.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

04, July #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Arse licking of Trump is useless...

Arse licking of Trump is useless. Europe should tell Trump we have other options - let’s dump Turnberry and impose tit for tat tariffs on the U.S., and messsge we will begin buying kit elsewhere. While telling the world Trump broke NATO - let him own that.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

02, July #CostOfLiving

Timothy Ash: Government and local government...

Government and local government regulations for businesses are like the RNLI handing out lifebelts made from concrete.

#CostOfLiving

Timothy Ash

18, June #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Remarkable that Hegseth has no concept...

Remarkable that Hegseth has no concept that Europe understood that this war would be a disaster, and it was. And that the US was waging a war against European interests, to hike energy prices and in the end make Iran stronger, which it has.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

13, June #SpeechClampdown

Timothy Ash: Spot on - the bro Billionaires…

Spot on - the bro Billionaires are using ai, social media and increasing control of mainstream media to push a far right, racist agenda to control the masses.

#SpeechClampdown

Timothy Ash

01, June #BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash: Brexit has been a complete disaster…

Brexit has been a complete disaster for the UK - making us all a lot poorer. And yet there has been no proper account. Weaker economy, weaker diplomatic punch, institutional erosion, queues at borders, higher transactions costs (mobile phone roaming).

#BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash

18, May #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Trump started a war with Iran…

Trump started a war with Iran he cannot win or end. It strengthened the IRGC, China & Russia, weakened NATO, EU & Asian allies, boosting global inflation, increasing U.S. & global borrowing costs, slowing global growth, making the world’s poorest poorer.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

13, May #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Türkiye’s current account deficit…

Türkiye’s current account deficit will inevitably be higher because of the Iran war. But reserve buffers are still high and with its strategic importance enhanced I expect support from friendly states - KSA, Qatar, even the U.S.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

12, May #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: But the reality is Trump…

But the reality is Trump said no more wars but he has now got himself into a war with Iran he cannot win. The Trump cult might not like to accept the reality but he is now going into a summit with Xi from a position of extreme weakness.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

04, May #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Disappointing April inflation numbers in Turkiye…

Disappointing April inflation numbers in Turkiye - but understandable given the Iran war risk/hit. The longer the war goes on then the more pressure on the CBRT to hike policy rates.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

03, May #BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash: Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader…

Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader, actually went on the BBC and questioned whether Tommy Robinson (Tommy Robinson!) is “creating a climate of intimidation and violence” with his rally. Astonishing. She’s a disgrace. The safety or ‘feelings’ of UK Muslims don’t count for her.

#BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash

02, May #BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash: NATO is dead and European leaders…

NATO is dead and European leaders who don’t get that are brain dead. Heard numerous military top brass types in UK pretend otherwise recently. Accept it and move on. Plan for worst - the reality.

#BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash

23, April #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: With the EU, and Germany insulting...

With the EU, and Germany insulting Türkiye, via VDL comments, the U.K. should take advantage of this to deepen defence and security ties. So many synergies - combining the UK’s defence tech expertise, with Türkiye’s strong manufacturing base.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

23, April #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: The war in Iran presents a huge ...

The war in Iran presents a huge ST macro risks to Türkiye, via inflation/current account, but long term it presents huge strategic opportunities in defence, energy, trade routes, tourism. Türkiye should be anchor for strategic partnerships with middle powers.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

19, April

Timothy Ash: Trump failed on Ukraine peace talks…

Trump failed on Ukraine peace talks (remember he bragged about 24H deal, 30 days, then 100), and Gaza (ask the 700+ dead Palestinians since). Iran - he fluffed the lines in Oman and now is living to regret the unlimited bounds of his own ego.