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Edwin Hayward

Edwin Hayward

Edwin Hayward is a British writer and programmer known for his work in literature and software development. He combines creative storytelling with technical expertise, contributing to both written publications and programming projects. He writes about political topics, especially Brexit and UK politics. He wrote Slaying Brexit Unicorns, a book that critiques and debunks myths surrounding the UK’s decision to leave the European Union (Brexit). His work has appeared in outlets focusing on political and social issues (e.g., Byline Times, The New European). He is not a politician or political office holder.
His link to politics comes from being a writer/analyst who comments on political events and public policy, especially Brexit.

https://twitter.com/edwinhayward
Edwin Hayward
15, May #StarmerCrisis

Edwin Hayward: Labour's dire situation is easy to understand…

Labour's dire situation is easy to understand if you look at it with eyes wide open. Starmer won a huge majority of MPs but Labour's vote share in doing so was very low at just 33.7%. Compare that to Johnson in 2019 who won 43.6% of all votes. It's only FPTP that delivered the parliamentary majority Labour now enjoy. So any "Labour landslide" narrative strictly applies only to the number of Labour MPs in power, but crucially not to Labour's appeal with voters in general. A lot of the 33.7% were people who just wanted to see the back of the Tories. They weren't Starmer Labour voters. They would have voted for a balloon on a stick. Now add in rising interest in Reform and in the Green Party since 2024, and you'll see that Starmer's wafer thin actual electoral advantage has been obliterated. Put plainly: Labour WILL lose in 2029 unless something DRASTIC changes. (And even then they may well yet lose.) Starmer cannot make drastic changes. His hands are tied by his role in drafting the manifesto, by his various red lines, by his actions in the first two years as PM, and by the slate of upcoming initiatives he just unveiled in the King's Speech. But a new leader (especially someone not closely connected with Starmer's administration and therefore untainted by it) could tear everything up and start fresh in a completely different direction. Would that be enough? Who knows. It would take some skilled manoeuvring, that's for sure. Will Labour lose if they continue under Starmer? 100%. Roll the dice: have a chance. Stay the course: failure guaranteed.
#StarmerCrisis