Color Scheme
Daniel Lacalle: Regions once sought independence...
Daniel Lacalle
14, September #BrokenSystem

Daniel Lacalle: Regions once sought independence...

Regions once sought independence to escape abusive and tyrannical governments. Now most seek secession not to expand freedom, but to build their own interventionist, bureaucratic and coercive state.
Daniel Lacalle: Regions once sought independence...
https://x.com/dlacalle_IA/status/2099394007495250266
#BrokenSystem
Daniel Lacalle: Iran's "resistance" strategy...
Daniel Lacalle
19, August #WarSpillover

Daniel Lacalle: Iran's "resistance" strategy...

Iran's "resistance" strategy has backfired spectacularly. The regime bet its entire strategy on threatening neighbors, funding terror proxies, and holding the world hostage over the Strait of Hormuz. That bet just collapsed. The regime only remains due to a system of terror and repression, not public support. The military power behind the threat has proven far weaker than advertised, incapable of even closing Hormuz to everyone except itself. The real lesson: Iran just exposed its own greatest vulnerability. ~80% of its exports and roughly 25% of its GDP flow through that strait. By trying to weaponize it, Tehran didn't scare the world. It just handed everyone a map of its biggest weakness. Iran has done more damage to its own economy than any sanctions regime ever could, while proving to global buyers that diversified, non-Iran energy routes are the safer bet long-term. Weakness disguised as leverage is still weakness.
#WarSpillover
Daniel Lacalle: Some are blaming Trump for Spain’s...
Daniel Lacalle
02, August #TrendShock

Daniel Lacalle: Some are blaming Trump for Spain’s...

Some are blaming Trump for Spain’s migrant crisis, citing U.S. recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara as a trigger. But Spain's Socialist PM already shifted his position on the Sahara months ago, without parliamentary approval. Sanchez's reckless pull-factor pro-migration policies, mass regularizations, and subsidies are to blame... and 22 EU nations agree. Blaming others does not change the facts.
#TrendShock
Daniel Lacalle: Trump understood Iran would eventually breach the MOU...
Daniel Lacalle
08, July #BrokenSystem

Daniel Lacalle: Trump understood Iran would eventually breach the MOU...

Trump understood Iran would eventually breach the MOU. ✅ That’s why the deal was fully conditional: ✅ He bought time for Iranian crude to pile up at sea due to lack of buyers. ✅ He gave Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman time to deepen alternatives to Hormuz and secure supply. ✅ He strengthened U.S. domestic energy security. ✅ He waited for OPEC+ output increases to make Iran weaker and Hormuz less central. The US never trusted or gave strength to Iran. It was a strategic move to solidify alternatives and Gulf nation options. Many will not recognize it, but it is a solid strategy.
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Daniel Lacalle: Full statement: "Following intensive talks, we are...
Daniel Lacalle
14, June #WarSpillover

Daniel Lacalle: Full statement: "Following intensive talks, we are...

Full statement: "Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland. We would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in this mediation effort, the great leadership of State of Qatar, for their support in reaching this agreement. I would also especially thank the visionary leadership of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Republic of Türkiye for their immense contributions in this regard. With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony."
#WarSpillover
Daniel Lacalle: The US does not need to bow…
Daniel Lacalle
23, May #WarSpillover

Daniel Lacalle: The US does not need to bow…

The US does not need to bow to Iran’s threats. Every day, the “Hormuz weapon” loses power as American oil production, exports, and alternative routes make the global energy system more resilient. Tehran can rattle the chokepoint, but it can no longer hold the world economy hostage. When a supplier or infrastructure owner stops understanding its position and starts using its initial advantage to damage and blackmail its customers, it is really signing its own death warrant. What looked like dominance becomes a countdown to irrelevance. Graphs via Bloomberg and BNE Intellinews.
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Daniel Lacalle: Not only is the Iran war causing a decline…
Daniel Lacalle
19, May #WarSpillover

Daniel Lacalle: Not only is the Iran war causing a decline…

"Not only is the Iran war causing a decline in global output, but the world’s central banks continue to embrace easy-money policies. This will result in more dollars (or sterling, euros, or yen, etc.) chasing fewer goods. This will further fuel rising prices. This is why we continue to see a general rise in prices. If rising prices were merely a result of falling output in Persian Gulf related goods, then we’d see rising prices in some areas result in falling prices in other areas. In other words, if the money supply were reasonably stable, consumers would respond to rising prices in some areas by cutting spending in other areas. But the CPI suggests that’s not happening. Thanks to continual infusions of new money through loose monetary policy, consumers are able to continue bidding up prices in all areas, even as price increases in the energy sector rise to multi-year highs". @ryanmcmaken @mises
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