Color Scheme

Daniel Lacalle: Things are very different today…

Things are very different today from 2008, 2018, or even 2022. US dollar strength is mitigating inflationary pressures in the United States. The strong correlation between oil prices and the US dollar limits the impact of geopolitical risks. The US is now a net exporter of oil and natural gas, making America a shock absorber, not a shock amplifier. Import prices in dollars are significantly better than in other developed economies. Graphs via Bloomberg

Cameron Hudson: To clarify my commentary…

To clarify my commentary, my opposition is not to lifting sanctions on Eritrea, per se. There is a logic to it. Isaias is an important and powerful actor in a region of growing strategic importance. My issue is the manner in which such decisions get made. Yes there are upsides But there are also many potential downsides. A decision to lift sanctions cannot be considered in a vacuum as they might have been a few years ago. This is not simply a bilateral matter any more. Beyond that, I question the Administration’s own logic. Engagement without a strategy can be self-defeating. And I don’t believe we have a well articulated Horn or Red Sea strategy. And also, if Trump’s diplomacy is transactional then what do we get for lifting these sanctions? I understand what Isaias and Sisi get, but it’s not clear what the US gets. Isaias is not going to reform internally, he isn’t going to give the US a base. And even if he promised those things, why on earth would we trust him? He has survived through alliance building and then abandonment. Why would now be any different? My commentary was intended to create public debate around all these questions because discussions make for better policies and better outcomes for everyone. Secret talks suggest the US and Boulos are not interested in public debates. We can do better. ✌️

Ayesha Ijaz Khan: I think Iran made a mistake by not showing up…

I think Iran made a mistake by not showing up to the second round of talks in Islamabad. But I don’t think Iran owed it to Pakistan to show up. And don’t consider it an affront if it didn’t. Also don’t think the answer to this is to actively jump into an anti-Iran alliance. Pakistan’s interest is served by remaining neutral and remaining a peacemaker. The negative propaganda notwithstanding.

Wolfgang Munchau: Now that Viktor Orbán is out of the picture…

Now that Viktor Orbán is out of the picture, and the €90bn loan to Ukraine agreed, the really difficult part still lies ahead. The EU unity over Ukraine is fractious. Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia will not be part of the loan. Further down the line, we will see whether Poland, for example, is ready to become a net contributor to the EU budget, or whether France and Germany are ready to increase their net contributions further. Zelensky is right to reject the membership-light option as a symbolic scam. But real membership is outside any foreseeable time horizon. http://eurointelligence.com

Liz Webster: Starmer’s EU reset is running out of time and momentum…

Starmer’s EU reset is running out of time and momentum, it is more of a tactical survival than genuine strategic pivot. Despite Starmer’s stronger language the reset remains very limited by his unworkable red lines. The July summit package (SPS/food checks, carbon pricing link, possible youth mobility) is expected to deliver only 0.3% GDP boost over 15 years; a tiny fraction of the 4–8% Brexit hit estimated by economists. EU officials are sceptical and frustrated: they see it as “old wine in new bottles” - Britain still wants cherry-picking without paying (budget contributions) or conceding on movement. Industry welcomes small steps but warns it’s nowhere near enough. The reset is hampered by slow negotiations, bureaucratic resistance and competing UK priorities ESPECIALLY the US 🇺🇸 deals. Internal Labour pressure is growing for a bolder approach (including from figures like David Lammy), but Starmer is constrained by politics. Polling shows shifting public opinion, majority want closer ties or even rejoining, but Starmer’s caution risks pleasing no one. ⚠️ 🚩 Analysts @anandMenon1 , Sir Ivan Rogers, @CER_Grant warn the status quo is unsustainable and time is running out for any meaningful pivot. 🔗

Pouria Zeraati: One point…

One point: Iraqchi's negotiations with Witkoff/Kushner are unlikely to lead anywhere. In Tehran, the decision-making system is locked up, and I heard from sources in Israel that Mojtaba either doesn't respond to messages or sends vague replies. Contacting him has become significantly harder than in previous days, which means the IRGC has control in hand. The fact that the IRGC's mouthpieces are saying Iraqchi isn't going to meet with the Americans in Pakistan is also indicative of this same state of uncertainty. These conditions will likely lead to the resumption of the next round of attacks aimed at [primarily] neutralizing countermeasures. The military transfers in recent days and the arrival of the USS George Bush in the CENTCOM command area show that the threat of attack isn't just a bluff...

Andrew Feinstein: Well said @ZackPolanski…

Well said @ZackPolanski Starmer & his reactionary ilk believe that only Jews who share their odious politics r worth caring about. This is a natural consequence of their weaponisation of antisemitism for their own factional political purposes. Their belief that all Jews should have the same attitude towards Israel is offensive. Jews have always prided ourselves on our diversity of thought & opinion

Liz Webster: Looks like planned, procedural exit...

Significant Times piece by @patrickkmaguire Looks like planned, procedural exit for Starmer after the expected May 7/8 local election disaster: • Cabinet ministers are now privately concluding that Starmer cannot survive the fallout. • The favoured scenario is not an immediate coup, but an “orderly transition” where Starmer is persuaded (or pressured) to announce a timetable for stepping down. • A new leader would be in place by Labour Party conference (late September / early October 2026) • Maguire names @AndyBurnhamGM as a central figure in this thinking. He notes that soft-left powerbrokers (Miliband, Rayner, Haigh) see Burnham as a viable route back into frontline politics and the leadership contest. Maguire writes that this “bloodless regicide” would suit most of the cabinet: it buys time, avoids a messy immediate leadership election, and gives Burnham a runway to return to the Commons and prepare. https://thetimes.com/article/8d388f0a-08b1-4855-b62b-f3a07118a5e1?shareToken=f6b69a12a142b6752de9a01cbe533118

Lewis Brackpool: Fuel prices are soaring after the...

Fuel prices are soaring after the Middle East conflicts that Reform UK, through Farage and Tice, backed “all the way”. Now the same party is calling for a “National Fuel Tax Protest”? This is pure opportunism. While they cheerlead forever wars that drive up energy costs, British families are left paying the price at the pump. Restore Britain would put British interests first. No more forever wars, and no more taking our people for granted.

Sue Diamond: If you live in a foreign country...

If you live in a foreign country, it’s important to pay attention to how xenophobia develops. The hostility faced by Black foreigners in South Africa is one example of how discrimination can escalate. Similar attitudes are appearing in other countries i.e. Australia, UK & USA, even if not at the same level of intensity. Prejudice often begins in one place & spreads, & once one group is targeted, others can follow. No nationality is immune to becoming the next target of discrimination.

David Icke: Carlson talks about 'people who...

Carlson talks about 'people who don't know what the truth is'. Neither does he. His 'truth' changes whenever it suits and his history confirms this. The 'alternative' media was hijacked from the mainstream in the wake of 'Covid' to get Trump elected and now the same 'influencers' move as one unit against him - exactly the same with Israel who they supported before flipping. Either way, the algorithms still love them.
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