03, May #CostOfLiving

Daniel Lacalle: Central banks are about to make…

Central banks are about to make another massive policy mistake by tightening in a temporary energy crisis. Their actions will do nothing to oil prices, geopolitical risk premiums, or government spending plans, which is what causes persistent inflation, but they will cripple small businesses and families that are already burdened by the monetary mistakes of 2020-2024. Graph via JP Morgan

Daniel Lacalle: Central banks are about to make…

https://x.com/dlacalle_IA/status/2050862838369947865?s=20

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02, May #CostOfLiving

Daniel Lacalle: It makes no sense for central banks...

It makes no sense for central banks to hike rates in a temporary energy shock. Rate hikes hurt consumers and businesses, and have no impact on the geopolitical risk premium attached to commodity prices or on government spending plans. Furthermore, by keeping money supply and liquidity elevated, central banks incentivise and perpetuate high government borrowing, which causes persistent inflation. Hence, hiking rates and incentivising government spending exacerbate the same productive sector weakness and stagflation risk they claim to try to avoid.

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29, April #CostOfLiving

Daniel Lacalle: Mamdani declares New York bankrupt…

Mamdani declares New York bankrupt and asks for a bailout. Behold the socialist trick of “tax the rich” in all its glory. Envy and hate: Announce a massive spending plan supposedly financed by squeezing “evil” millionaires and rich citizens. Lie: Blame a fabricated “revenue problem” despite record tax receipts of $162 bn in 2025 and more than $55 bn of extra revenue since 2010. Deceit: Use the narrative to justify massive tax hikes on everyone, especially the middle class and the very voters who applauded the slogan. The “tax the rich” promise always turns into an “impoverish all” reality. This is the true “warmth of collectivism." Enjoy the vote. #Mamdani #newyork

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26, April #CostOfLiving

Daniel Lacalle: Gasoline prices reach $7.15 per gallon…

Gasoline prices reach $7.15 per gallon on average in the European Union. Gasoline is 68% more expensive than in the US. Diesel is 59% more expensive. The average salary in the US is 35-40% higher than in the EU. No EU country has cheaper gasoline prices than the most expensive US state (California) For years, progressives in the US have demanded the same taxes for gasoline as in Europe. Imagine if it had happened.

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24, April #CostOfLiving

Daniel Lacalle: Things are very different today…

Things are very different today from 2008, 2018, or even 2022. US dollar strength is mitigating inflationary pressures in the United States. The strong correlation between oil prices and the US dollar limits the impact of geopolitical risks. The US is now a net exporter of oil and natural gas, making America a shock absorber, not a shock amplifier. Import prices in dollars are significantly better than in other developed economies. Graphs via Bloomberg

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21, April

Daniel Lacalle: Iran lost the war when it revealed…

Iran lost the war when it revealed all its weaknesses at once: The regime depends completely on the Strait of Hormuz being open, it has no public support so they need to ban internet, and they have hurt China, their largest customer. Iran's economy is demolished with no internet, no Hormuz and China exports cut.

19, April

Daniel Lacalle: The IRGC is a kleptocratic parasitic murder machine…

The IRGC is a kleptocratic parasitic murder machine that squanders oil money and kills its people. It has no public support; that is why it resorts to censorship and terror. The Middle East's and Iran's specific problems would disappear with the elimination of the IRGC mafia.