Daniel Lacalle: Oil prices fall below $100 as...
Oil prices fall below $100 as U.S.-Iran tensions keep traders focused on Strait of Hormuz risks.
Daniel Lacalle: Spain's illegal immigration debacle...
Spain's illegal immigration debacle. You thought the government was going to solve the massive illegal entry? Think again. Free wifi, subsidies, shelter, and, ultimately, regularization. Pull factor? Naaaah. This is not incompetence; it is a strategy to import dependent and submissive poor to buy votes. https://elespanol.com/espana/politica/20260914/sanchez-anuncia-plazas-migrantes-ceuta-alaba-inteligencia-marruecos-asalto/1003744383548_0.htmlDaniel Lacalle: Regions once sought independence...
Regions once sought independence to escape abusive and tyrannical governments. Now most seek secession not to expand freedom, but to build their own interventionist, bureaucratic and coercive state.Daniel Lacalle: Spain illegal immigrant debacle...
Spain illegal immigrant debacle. Ceuta. Thousands remain, taking over the streets. The government gives them free wifi, food and wants to send them to other regions instead of expelling them.Daniel Lacalle: Few statements are more racist...
Few statements are more racist, xenophobic, and classist than: “Illegal immigrants are necessary because they will look after our elderly and clean our homes.” It is not only false. It is profoundly classist.Daniel Lacalle: Big government, high taxes...
Big government, high taxes, and money printing created the affordability crisis. More bureaucracy raises costs. Higher taxes reduce disposable income and investment. Printing money erodes purchasing power. You cannot solve a cost-of-living crisis by making the state larger, the tax burden heavier, and the currency weakerDaniel Lacalle: Raising taxes is never a tool...
Raising taxes is never a tool for budget control. Only a tool to control society. Because interventionism always spends more. The UK public accounts are a disaster. UK borrowing for July was £1.8 billion, 68.7% more than the same time last year and £2.3 billion above the OBR’s forecast.Daniel Lacalle: Iran's "resistance" strategy...
Iran's "resistance" strategy has backfired spectacularly. The regime bet its entire strategy on threatening neighbors, funding terror proxies, and holding the world hostage over the Strait of Hormuz. That bet just collapsed. The regime only remains due to a system of terror and repression, not public support. The military power behind the threat has proven far weaker than advertised, incapable of even closing Hormuz to everyone except itself. The real lesson: Iran just exposed its own greatest vulnerability. ~80% of its exports and roughly 25% of its GDP flow through that strait. By trying to weaponize it, Tehran didn't scare the world. It just handed everyone a map of its biggest weakness. Iran has done more damage to its own economy than any sanctions regime ever could, while proving to global buyers that diversified, non-Iran energy routes are the safer bet long-term. Weakness disguised as leverage is still weakness.Daniel Lacalle: UAE cuts off all trade...
UAE cuts off all trade and financial transactions with Iran. The Iranian terror regime is increasingly isolated. The largest country they import from has cut them off completely: ~30% of pre war imports and ~13% of pre war exportsDaniel Lacalle: Government spending has only increased...
Government spending has only increased in the past two decades. Taxes have soared in the past two decades. Government intervention is the norm of the past two decades. And you are worse off than your parents. Yet you believe the solution is more government and more intervention.Daniel Lacalle: Spain’s illegal immigration...
Spain’s illegal immigration debacle is neither over nor solved. Last night, thousands again tried to enter. They know that if they cross illegally and wait for press attention to fade, they will be sent to regional communities and a Sanchez mass regularisation may follow.Daniel Lacalle: The Spanish migration debacle...
The Spanish migration debacle is proof that uncontrolled pro-migration policies are not economically sound, humane, or compassionate. They are all about creating a dependent subclass relegated to ghettos, passing the social and fiscal cost to taxpayers.Daniel Lacalle: Iran's awesome strategy...
Iran's awesome strategy. Hurt their main partner.Daniel Lacalle: Some are blaming Trump for Spain’s...
Some are blaming Trump for Spain’s migrant crisis, citing U.S. recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara as a trigger. But Spain's Socialist PM already shifted his position on the Sahara months ago, without parliamentary approval. Sanchez's reckless pull-factor pro-migration policies, mass regularizations, and subsidies are to blame... and 22 EU nations agree. Blaming others does not change the facts.Daniel Lacalle: Angry Spaniards call for PM resignation...
Angry Spaniards call for PM resignation after border disaster. Years of radical socialist government policies subsidising and regularizing illegal immigrants created a massive pull factor. The EU ignored it. Now, Spain and the EU are suffering the consequences.Daniel Lacalle: In trying to weaponise Hormuz...
In trying to weaponise Hormuz, Tehran is mainly hurting IranDaniel Lacalle: Net zero and statism have demolished...
Net zero and statism have demolished growth and job creation in the UK. The government wants to double down.Daniel Lacalle: Andy Burnham’s “winning strategy” for the UK...
Andy Burnham’s “winning strategy” for the UK economy is to copy the French model of huge taxes, big government, and loose immigration—the same mix that has delivered stagnation, monster debt, and social unrest in France. You pay.Daniel Lacalle: Government spending is not a growth tool...
Government spending is not a growth tool. Counting debt‑funded government outlays and public jobs as “GDP” and “employment” is a statistical trick, because it’s all paid by taxpayers, now and in the future. Politicians can manufacture fake “growth” and “jobs” by printing money and piling on debt while you get poorer in real terms.Daniel Lacalle: Trump understood Iran would eventually breach the MOU...
Trump understood Iran would eventually breach the MOU. ✅ That’s why the deal was fully conditional: ✅ He bought time for Iranian crude to pile up at sea due to lack of buyers. ✅ He gave Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman time to deepen alternatives to Hormuz and secure supply. ✅ He strengthened U.S. domestic energy security. ✅ He waited for OPEC+ output increases to make Iran weaker and Hormuz less central. The US never trusted or gave strength to Iran. It was a strategic move to solidify alternatives and Gulf nation options. Many will not recognize it, but it is a solid strategy.Daniel Lacalle: Higher taxes and more spending...
Higher taxes and more spending... larger deficit. The Starmer-Reeves budget effect in all its glory. Burnham wants to double down on the same policies that have led the UK to stagnation.Daniel Lacalle: The UK Labour contender wants...
The UK Labour contender wants to double down on the policies that have demolished the UK economy.Daniel Lacalle: Burnham's economic policies are not innovative...
Burnham's economic policies are not innovative nor progressive. It is the same disaster package that brought France to stagnation, discontent and unsustainable debt. These policies show that what he wants is control, not progress.Daniel Lacalle: Andy Burnham said the UK must...
Andy Burnham said the UK must “get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets.” His plan? Spend a lot more, tax even more, double down on net zero and ignore those who fund the UK debt. That’s exactly the formula that has wrecked the UK economy. Now they want more of the same, with big applause from part of the media. What could possibly go wrong?Daniel Lacalle: The UK will not recover with more...
The UK will not recover with more taxes and bigger government. If big government and high taxes were the solution, France would be growing fast, and it is in stagnation with an unsustainable debt and deficit problem. More importantly, big government and high taxes did not improve prosperity or affordability.Daniel Lacalle: The UK economy has been demolished...
The UK economy has been demolished by net zero, keeping the brutal taxes and insane regulation of the EU and insane immigration policies. More of the same will not solve it.Daniel Lacalle: Starmer resigns. He promised stability...
Starmer resigns. He promised stability and growth—instead, he delivered stagnation, rising taxes, and inflationism. The grim news is that someone like Burnham is even worse.Daniel Lacalle: Full statement: "Following intensive talks, we are...
Full statement: "Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland. We would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in this mediation effort, the great leadership of State of Qatar, for their support in reaching this agreement. I would also especially thank the visionary leadership of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Republic of Türkiye for their immense contributions in this regard. With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony."Daniel Lacalle: Banning Iran from having a nuclear bomb…
Banning Iran from having a nuclear bomb or fund terrorists is not "damaging" Iran. It means oil funds go to Iranian citizens instead of terror proxies, threats to the world and corruption. So it is strengthening Iranian civil society, not the opposite.Daniel Lacalle: Iran signed its death sentence…
Iran signed its death sentence when it decided to attack its OPEC partners and use the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon. When a supplier believes its strength lies in blocking everyone except themselves, it shows its biggest weakness and the weapon becomes a liability.Daniel Lacalle: Iran and the US have...
Iran and the US have reached a tentative deal to extend a ceasefire and work toward an agreement to end the war, raising hopes the three-month conflict could be nearing a resolutionDaniel Lacalle: Trump announces peace deal…
Trump announces peace deal with Iran following negotiations with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan & Israel. Strait of Hormuz to reopen. Final details being finalized. Could be a historic diplomatic breakthrough for regional stabilityDaniel Lacalle: Trump announces peace deal with Iran…
Trump announces peace deal with Iran following negotiations with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan & Israel. Strait of Hormuz to reopen. Final details being finalized. Could be a historic diplomatic breakthrough for regional stabilityDaniel Lacalle: The US does not need to bow…
The US does not need to bow to Iran’s threats. Every day, the “Hormuz weapon” loses power as American oil production, exports, and alternative routes make the global energy system more resilient. Tehran can rattle the chokepoint, but it can no longer hold the world economy hostage. When a supplier or infrastructure owner stops understanding its position and starts using its initial advantage to damage and blackmail its customers, it is really signing its own death warrant. What looked like dominance becomes a countdown to irrelevance. Graphs via Bloomberg and BNE Intellinews.Read more